COASTAL WEATHER OUTLOOK for South East Qld — February 27th, 28th & March 1st 2026

Mixed Conditions to Start the Weekend Before Improving on Sunday

February 27th, 28th, & March 1st 2026 — Issued 8:30pm, February 26th

By Josh Toohey, Coastwatch

This weekend brings a mix of unsettled weather and some worthwhile opportunities for those looking to get out on the water across Southeast Queensland. While gusty southeasterly winds, showers, and elevated seas feature at times, there are still windows—particularly in the Gold Coast canals and Moreton Bay —where conditions ease enough to enjoy some time afloat. Friday and Saturday remain on the breezier, more unsettled side, but Sunday continues to shape up as the most comfortable day of the three, especially for sheltered‑water boating.

Friday

Friday brings a much more unsettled setup across the Gold Coast and wider Southeast Queensland. A Strong Wind Warning is in place, with southeasterly winds 20 to 25 knots, strengthening through the afternoon and evening with gusts approaching 30 knots. Seas will be 2 to 2.5 metres, making offshore conditions uncomfortable and best avoided.

An easterly swell around 1 metre inshore will increase to about 1.5 metres offshore, and skies will stay cloudy with a 95% chance of showers, so expect wet periods throughout the day.

Saturday

Conditions begin to ease on Saturday but continue the unsettled pattern across Southeast Queensland, compared to Friday. Southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 knots will hold through the day, keeping offshore areas uncomfortable, while sheltered waterways such as the Gold Coast canals and Moreton Bay remain the more pleasant and manageable options.

Seas will sit around 1.5 to 2 metres, with an easterly swell of 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore. Skies will stay partly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers, and some brief passing showers are likely, especially in exposed coastal areas.

Rainfall probabilities show a 50% chance of at least 2 mm, with a lower 25% chance of 7 mm or more, reinforcing that while showers are around, heavier falls are unlikely. Conditions inland and in sheltered waterways will feel considerably calmer than out wide.

Saturday is a manageable day on the water—best suited to protected areas rather than the open ocean.

Sunday

Sunday remains the best day of the weekend for getting out on the water, although winds and showers still play a role. Southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected, but conditions ease compared to earlier in the weekend, especially through the afternoon where the transcript indicated winds drop and boating becomes more comfortable in sheltered areas.

Seas will sit around 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore, with an easterly swell of 1.5 to 2 metres. While offshore remains bumpy, the Gold Coast canals and Moreton Bay will again offer the most pleasant conditions.

Skies will be partly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Rainfall guidance shows a 50% chance of at least 1 mm, and a 25% chance of 5 mm or more, so showers remain possible but brief. Conditions are expected to become drier into the afternoon and evening.

Sunday offers the most pleasant boating window of the weekend— particularly in protected waterways —thanks to easing winds, lighter showers, and calmer late‑day conditions.

Looking beyond the weekend, early signals point toward the potential for calmer conditions returning, though this remains dependent on how a tropical low develops in the Coral Sea. As always, forecasts may shift, so stay up to date with the latest forecasts and coastal observations for your local areas available over on our weather pages.

Don’t destroy what you came to enjoy!

BEACH SIGNS

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